Let’s start by saying what this post isn’t: this isn’t an article in support of AfD. It also isn’t an article against AfD per se. This is a post about what I think is the reality of the political landscape in Germany, how AfD fits into it, and why its detractors might want to see it in a coalition government sooner rather than later.
Ever since AfD was born it has drawn criticism from all sides of Germany’s political spectrum. Everyone has been quick to criticise it every step of the way (a way that has been punctuated by many mistakes, if we’re honest), and German conservatives (CDU and CSU alike) have stayed well clear of forming alliances with AfD in order to keep their reputations intact. There is something about AfD that to many Germans sounds a lot like an echo from a past they have been working hard to apologise for: AfD’s rhetoric around immigrants, as well as some of its members’ comments on whether all Nazis were criminals, have mostly been met with fear and a substantial dose of scepticism.
But there are two problems.
The first is that while Germany’s conservatives have been trying to “stay away” from AfD, at least on the plane of formal alliances, their policies have inevitably shifted towards a more right-wing stance, especially in the space of immigration where AfD is perceived as having an advantage. This has caused two things: first, AfD’s position on immigration has been legitimised (I am not saying this is a good or a bad thing, you can make up your own mind about that, I am just stating a fact); the second is that this shift defies the point of refusing to form an alliance with AfD in the first place, because in the end many voters end up voting for the “original” rather than the “copy” — i.e. they would rather go for AfD than CDU.
The second problem is that this strategy hasn’t worked well for Germany’s conservatives, and trying to shut AfD out of power at all levels of government hasn’t worked either. A coalition with AfD is seen as the ultimate evil, and even using AfD’s votes in parliament to pass legislation seems to be unacceptable, to the point that Angela Merkel had to step out of her peaceful retirement to criticise her own party.
I think we’ve reached an absurd state of things.
First of all, AfD is, whether we like it or not, the democratic expression of many people’s voting intentions. It doesn’t matter who these people are, whether we think we’re smarter than them, or whether they are shooting themselves in the food by supporting AfD: AfD is here, and I believe it is here to stay for a while. What is even more important is that, by keeping AfD out of everything, we essentially make AfD blameless: AfD can’t be blamed for any problems at the federal level if they are never involved in government and if their support in parliament is seen as ‘dirty’.
Take a look at Italy. Giorgia Meloni grew her party from scratch to being the biggest party in Italy. How did she do it? She stayed as far as possible from power for long enough to gain enough votes from people who were fed up with mainstream parties. During covid she famously stayed out of the “governo Draghi”, a government that saw pretty much every party in politics coalesce into one big, happy government which as usual didn’t last very long. Meloni was the only party in opposition, and she was gaining more voters by the day, simply in virtue of the fact that she was not doing anything. Her party wasn’t in government, and as such it could not be blamed for anything. (It doesn’t matter that Meloni herself had in fact been a minister in a Berlusconi government many years before, because voters typically don’t remember more than 5 months of history anyway). Once her party had become the strongest it was easy to win the election and form a coalition government with Meloni as its prime minister.
So I believe this could now be AfD’s destiny: if they are kept out of government for long enough for them to gain the votes of people who are unhappy with traditional parties, the day will come when AfD will be the biggest one. It would be much better for everyone if mainstream parties stopped ostracising AfD and let it be part of a coalition government: I believe the fastest way to lose support is to be criticised for doing something. Keeping AfD out of government exonerates them from taking any responsibility and gives them space to keep growing.
Ever since AfD was born it has drawn criticism from all sides of Germany’s political spectrum. Everyone has been quick to criticise it every step of the way (a way that has been punctuated by many mistakes, if we’re honest), and German conservatives (CDU and CSU alike) have stayed well clear of forming alliances with AfD in order to keep their reputations intact. There is something about AfD that to many Germans sounds a lot like an echo from a past they have been working hard to apologise for: AfD’s rhetoric around immigrants, as well as some of its members’ comments on whether all Nazis were criminals, have mostly been met with fear and a substantial dose of scepticism.
But there are two problems.
The first is that while Germany’s conservatives have been trying to “stay away” from AfD, at least on the plane of formal alliances, their policies have inevitably shifted towards a more right-wing stance, especially in the space of immigration where AfD is perceived as having an advantage. This has caused two things: first, AfD’s position on immigration has been legitimised (I am not saying this is a good or a bad thing, you can make up your own mind about that, I am just stating a fact); the second is that this shift defies the point of refusing to form an alliance with AfD in the first place, because in the end many voters end up voting for the “original” rather than the “copy” — i.e. they would rather go for AfD than CDU.
The second problem is that this strategy hasn’t worked well for Germany’s conservatives, and trying to shut AfD out of power at all levels of government hasn’t worked either. A coalition with AfD is seen as the ultimate evil, and even using AfD’s votes in parliament to pass legislation seems to be unacceptable, to the point that Angela Merkel had to step out of her peaceful retirement to criticise her own party.
I think we’ve reached an absurd state of things.
First of all, AfD is, whether we like it or not, the democratic expression of many people’s voting intentions. It doesn’t matter who these people are, whether we think we’re smarter than them, or whether they are shooting themselves in the food by supporting AfD: AfD is here, and I believe it is here to stay for a while. What is even more important is that, by keeping AfD out of everything, we essentially make AfD blameless: AfD can’t be blamed for any problems at the federal level if they are never involved in government and if their support in parliament is seen as ‘dirty’.
Take a look at Italy. Giorgia Meloni grew her party from scratch to being the biggest party in Italy. How did she do it? She stayed as far as possible from power for long enough to gain enough votes from people who were fed up with mainstream parties. During covid she famously stayed out of the “governo Draghi”, a government that saw pretty much every party in politics coalesce into one big, happy government which as usual didn’t last very long. Meloni was the only party in opposition, and she was gaining more voters by the day, simply in virtue of the fact that she was not doing anything. Her party wasn’t in government, and as such it could not be blamed for anything. (It doesn’t matter that Meloni herself had in fact been a minister in a Berlusconi government many years before, because voters typically don’t remember more than 5 months of history anyway). Once her party had become the strongest it was easy to win the election and form a coalition government with Meloni as its prime minister.
So I believe this could now be AfD’s destiny: if they are kept out of government for long enough for them to gain the votes of people who are unhappy with traditional parties, the day will come when AfD will be the biggest one. It would be much better for everyone if mainstream parties stopped ostracising AfD and let it be part of a coalition government: I believe the fastest way to lose support is to be criticised for doing something. Keeping AfD out of government exonerates them from taking any responsibility and gives them space to keep growing.